Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 12, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up Slightly from December Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2017-2018 season is 3.99 million tons, up slightly from last month but down 23 percent from the 2016-2017 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 46.0 million boxes (2.07 million tons), is unchanged from last month but down 33 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 19.0 million boxes (855,000 tons), unchanged from last month but down 42 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 27.0 million boxes (1.22 million tons), is unchanged from last month but down 24 percent from last season's final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 46.0 million boxes (1.84 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 9 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast, at 35.0 million boxes (1.40 million tons), is down 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 11.0 million boxes (440,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.83 million boxes (78,000 tons), is up 11 percent from the previous forecast and up 34 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on January 12, 2018. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2016-2017 and Forecasted January 1, 2018.......................................................................................... 4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2016 and 2017...................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2017 and 2018.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2017 and 2018.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2017 and 2018.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2017 and 2018................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 December Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 December Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2016-2017 and Forecasted January 1, 2018 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2016-2017 : 2017-2018 : 2016-2017 : 2017-2018 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------ ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : California, all ..............: 50,300 46,000 2,012 1,840 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ....: 39,300 35,000 1,572 1,400 Valencia ....................: 11,000 11,000 440 440 : Florida, all .................: 68,750 46,000 3,094 2,070 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ....: 33,000 19,000 1,485 855 Valencia ....................: 35,750 27,000 1,609 1,215 : Texas, all ...................: 1,370 1,830 58 78 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ....: 1,090 1,430 46 61 Valencia ....................: 280 400 12 17 : United States, all ...........: 120,420 93,830 5,164 3,988 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ....: 73,390 55,430 3,103 2,316 Valencia ....................: 47,030 38,400 2,061 1,672 : Grapefruit : California ...................: 4,000 4,200 160 168 Florida, all .................: 7,760 4,650 330 198 Red .........................: 6,280 3,800 267 162 White .......................: 1,480 850 63 36 Texas ........................: 4,800 4,100 192 164 : United States ................: 16,560 12,950 682 530 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California ...................: 23,900 21,000 956 840 Florida ......................: 1,620 860 77 41 : United States ................: 25,520 21,860 1,033 881 : Lemons : Arizona ......................: 1,650 1,250 66 50 California ...................: 20,500 20,500 820 820 : United States ................: 22,150 21,750 886 870 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2016 and 2017 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2016 : 2017 : 2016 : 2017 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 265 240 1,050 1,550 Arizona .......: 55 30 300 235 Arkansas ......: 530 600 1,950 1,800 California ....: 340 330 1,800 1,800 Colorado ......: 800 500 1,650 1,750 Connecticut ...: 4 9 47 54 Delaware ......: 2 3 25 25 Florida .......: 55 40 550 490 Georgia .......: 195 165 950 1,240 Idaho .........: 950 510 2,600 2,200 : Illinois ......: 300 300 1,100 1,100 Indiana .......: 185 310 960 1,300 Iowa ..........: 620 630 2,650 2,280 Kansas ........: 1,350 1,250 5,300 4,500 Kentucky ......: 800 1,090 3,950 3,850 Louisiana .....: 150 200 780 620 Maine .........: 26 22 142 170 Maryland ......: 78 100 360 350 Massachusetts .: 14 16 55 66 Michigan ......: 440 375 1,320 1,100 : Minnesota .....: 770 860 3,200 2,590 Mississippi ...: 145 160 900 970 Missouri ......: 1,585 1,500 5,350 5,100 Montana .......: 1,025 870 4,100 3,700 Nebraska ......: 1,450 1,300 4,600 4,250 Nevada ........: 215 220 600 600 New Hampshire .: 6 6 31 45 New Jersey ....: 20 26 123 131 New Mexico ....: 115 90 400 400 New York ......: 189 325 1,390 1,500 : North Carolina : 260 260 1,200 880 North Dakota ..: 1,450 1,090 4,700 3,350 Ohio ..........: 355 415 1,340 1,590 Oklahoma ......: 1,450 1,500 5,700 4,800 Oregon ........: 440 270 2,300 1,700 Pennsylvania ..: 390 520 2,200 2,400 Rhode Island ..: 1 1 4 5 South Carolina : 75 80 380 390 South Dakota ..: 2,200 1,850 6,000 5,350 Tennessee .....: 550 480 3,050 3,000 : Texas .........: 2,500 3,280 10,000 7,300 Utah ..........: 410 300 1,200 1,150 Vermont .......: 35 40 260 165 Virginia ......: 420 540 2,300 2,100 Washington ....: 400 330 1,500 1,150 West Virginia .: 190 175 870 950 Wisconsin .....: 810 820 3,200 2,650 Wyoming .......: 525 360 1,400 1,550 : United States .: 25,140 24,388 95,837 86,246 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2017 and 2018 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,481 1,954 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,167 82,703 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,434 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 53,784 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,563 All other ............................: (NA) 37,221 Oats ...................................: 2,588 801 Proso millet ...........................: 478 404 Rice ...................................: 2,463 2,374 Rye ....................................: 1,961 286 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,626 5,045 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 284 Wheat, all .............................: 46,012 37,586 Winter ...............................: 32,696 32,608 25,291 Durum ................................: 2,307 2,136 Other spring .........................: 11,009 10,159 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,077.0 2,002.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 303 272 Mustard seed ...........................: 103.0 95.4 Peanuts ................................: 1,870.6 1,775.6 Rapeseed ...............................: 10.1 9.7 Safflower ..............................: 162.0 143.2 Soybeans for beans .....................: 90,142 89,522 Sunflower ..............................: 1,403.0 1,344.7 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 12,611.5 11,348.9 Upland ...............................: 12,360.0 11,101.0 American Pima ........................: 251.5 247.9 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,131.2 1,114.1 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 892.9 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 321.5 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...................: 26.5 9.4 Dry edible beans .......................: 2,092.0 2,012.7 Chickpeas, all .......................: 618.8 599.3 Large ...............................: 439.3 424.5 Small ...............................: 179.5 174.8 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,128.0 1,050.5 Lentils ................................: 1,104.0 1,022.0 Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 53.3 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 60.4 Potatoes, all ..........................: 1,034.3 1,025.5 Spring ...............................: 58.0 57.7 Summer ...............................: 68.3 65.5 Fall .................................: 908.0 902.3 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 22.3 Sweet potatoes .........................: 161.6 159.3 Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: (NA) 0.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2017 and 2018 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 72.6 141,923 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 176.6 14,604,067 Corn for silage ....................tons: 19.9 128,356 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.44 131,455 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.32 55,068 All other ........................tons: 2.05 76,387 Oats ............................bushels: 61.7 49,391 Proso millet ....................bushels: 36.1 14,567 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,507 178,228 Rye .............................bushels: 33.9 9,696 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 72.1 363,832 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.3 3,772 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.3 1,740,582 Winter ........................bushels: 50.2 1,269,437 Durum .........................bushels: 25.7 54,909 Other spring ..................bushels: 41.0 416,236 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,558 3,118,680 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,725.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 14.1 3,842 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 632 60,250 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,074 7,233,600 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,139 20,750 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,256 179,896 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 49.1 4,391,553 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,613 2,168,737 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 899 21,263.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 889 20,570.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,342 693.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 31.7 35,325 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.1 32,243 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,209 710,161 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 2/ .............cwt: 1,330 125 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,781 35,845 Chickpeas, all 2/ .................cwt: 1,152 6,905 Large 2/ .........................cwt: 1,165 4,945 Small 2/ .........................cwt: 1,121 1,960 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,350 14,177 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 732 7,482 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 357 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,959 104,366.0 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,271 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 928,605 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 96 5,778 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 430 441,307 Spring ............................cwt: 343 19,790 Summer ............................cwt: 331 21,679 Fall ..............................cwt: 443 399,838 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 125 2,796 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 224 35,646 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: 10,530 3,686 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2017 and 2018 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,004,040 790,760 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,489,680 33,469,080 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,603,780 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,765,850 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,702,880 All other ....................: (NA) 15,062,970 Oats ...........................: 1,047,340 324,160 Proso millet ...................: 193,440 163,490 Rice ...........................: 996,750 960,730 Rye ............................: 793,600 115,740 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,276,790 2,041,660 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 114,930 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,620,600 15,210,680 Winter .......................: 13,231,740 13,196,130 10,235,010 Durum ........................: 933,620 864,420 Other spring .................: 4,455,230 4,111,250 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 840,540 810,190 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 122,620 110,080 Mustard seed ...................: 41,680 38,610 Peanuts ........................: 757,010 718,570 Rapeseed .......................: 4,090 3,930 Safflower ......................: 65,560 57,950 Soybeans for beans .............: 36,479,570 36,228,660 Sunflower ......................: 567,780 544,190 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,103,750 4,592,790 Upland .......................: 5,001,970 4,492,460 American Pima ................: 101,780 100,320 Sugarbeets .....................: 457,790 450,870 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 361,350 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 130,100 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 10,720 3,800 Dry edible beans ...............: 846,610 814,520 Chickpeas 2/ .................: 250,420 242,530 Large .......................: 177,780 171,790 Small .......................: 72,640 70,740 Dry edible peas ................: 456,490 425,130 Lentils ........................: 446,780 413,590 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 21,560 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 24,440 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 418,570 415,010 Spring .......................: 23,470 23,350 Summer .......................: 27,640 26,510 Fall .........................: 367,460 365,150 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 9,020 Sweet potatoes .................: 65,400 64,470 Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) 140 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2017 and 2018 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 : 2018 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.91 3,090,010 Corn for grain .........................: 11.08 370,960,390 Corn for silage ........................: 44.72 116,442,600 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.48 119,253,970 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.45 49,956,850 All other ............................: 4.60 69,297,120 Oats ...................................: 2.21 716,910 Proso millet ...........................: 2.02 330,370 Rice ...................................: 8.41 8,084,290 Rye ....................................: 2.13 246,290 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.53 9,241,760 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.77 3,421,900 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.11 47,370,880 Winter ...............................: 3.38 34,548,410 Durum ................................: 1.73 1,494,380 Other spring .........................: 2.76 11,328,090 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.75 1,414,610 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 6,100,820 Flaxseed ...............................: 0.89 97,590 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.71 27,330 Peanuts ................................: 4.57 3,281,110 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.40 9,410 Safflower ..............................: 1.41 81,600 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.30 119,518,490 Sunflower ..............................: 1.81 983,720 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 1.01 4,629,470 Upland ...............................: 1.00 4,478,590 American Pima ........................: 1.50 150,880 Sugarbeets .............................: 71.08 32,046,300 Sugarcane ..............................: 80.95 29,250,360 Tobacco ................................: 2.48 322,120 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...................: 1.49 5,670 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.00 1,625,900 Chickpeas, all 2/ ....................: 1.29 313,210 Large ...............................: 1.31 224,300 Small ...............................: 1.26 88,900 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.51 643,060 Lentils ................................: 0.82 339,380 Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) 16,190 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.20 47,340 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,360 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 421,210 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 2,620 Potatoes, all 2/ .......................: 48.23 20,017,350 Spring ...............................: 38.44 897,660 Summer ...............................: 37.10 983,340 Fall .................................: 49.67 18,136,350 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 1,270 Sweet potatoes .........................: 25.08 1,616,880 Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: 11.80 1,670 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2017 and 2018 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2017-2018 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2017 : 2018 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 682 530 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 886 870 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,164 3,988 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,033 881 : Noncitrus : Apples ......................million pounds: 10,444.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 55,500 Avocados ..............................tons: Bananas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Blackberries (Oregon) .........1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Boysenberries (Oregon) ........1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 432,760 : Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 238.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 9,050,000 Dates .................................tons: Figs (California) .....................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 7,505,300 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines ............................tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: : Peaches ...............................tons: 735,200 Pears .................................tons: 707,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: 105,000 Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: 30,534 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,250,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 36,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 277,400 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 650,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2016-2017 and 2017-2018. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2017 and 2018 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2017-2018 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2017 : 2018 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 618,700 480,810 Lemons ....................................: 803,770 789,250 Oranges ...................................: 4,684,700 3,617,850 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 937,120 799,230 : Noncitrus : Apples ....................................: 4,737,320 Apricots ..................................: 50,350 Avocados ..................................: Bananas (Hawaii) ..........................: Blackberries (Oregon) .....................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Boysenberries (Oregon) ....................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 392,590 : Cherries, Tart ............................: 108,050 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 410,500 Dates .....................................: Figs (California) .........................: Grapes ....................................: 6,808,690 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines ................................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: : Peaches ...................................: 666,960 Pears .....................................: 641,380 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: 95,250 Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: 1,384,990 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,020,580 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 32,660 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 125,830 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 589,670 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2016-2017 and 2017-2018. December Weather Summary Raging wildfires in southern California and a late-month cold wave east of the Rockies highlighted a La Niņa-driven weather regime. La Niņa also likely contributed to a broad expanse of drier-than-normal conditions, as well as unusually warm weather across the nation's southwestern quadrant. A few areas, however, received significant December precipitation. Wet (or snowy) regions included the northern High Plains and areas downwind of the Great Lakes. After mid-month, a pair of heavy precipitation events across the interior Southeast eased drought and generally benefited winter grains and cover crops. In advance of bitterly cold conditions, snow cover increased from less than one-quarter (24 percent) of the country on December 20 to nearly half (49 percent) by December 25. Most of the gain in snow coverage occurred across the northern half of the U.S., providing highly beneficial insulation for Northwestern and Midwestern winter wheat, as well as wheat on the Plains from Nebraska northward. Earlier in the month, from December 7-9, a rare, early- season snow storm had blanketed the Deep South from southern Texas to the southern Appalachians. In contrast, winter wheat across the southern half of the Plains-already poorly established and stressed by developing drought-was left exposed. And, as very cold air arrived late in the month, concerns mounted with regard to the health of the southern Plains' wheat. Between November 26 and December 31, wheat rated very poor to poor increased from 10 to 42 percent in Oklahoma; from 14 to 22 percent in Kansas; and from 7 to 21 percent in Colorado. Oklahoma led the Plains with topsoil moisture rated 84 percent very short to short at the end of December, followed by Kansas (77 percent) and Colorado (60 percent). Southern California's wildfire outbreak, which began on December 4, was fanned by a protracted period of "Santa Ana" winds that hampered containment efforts. The Thomas fire spread across parts of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties and-with more than 280,000 acres burned-became the largest single wildfire in modern California history. December Agricultural Summary December started milder than normal, particularly in the middle of the Nation. By the first full week of December, cooler weather crept into the United States, but the Northern Plains, and especially eastern Montana, remained well above average. As the month progressed, the northern part of the country began to chill to more normal temperatures, while the Southeast saw a burst of warmth during the third week. Colder temperatures finally replaced the warmth in the Northern Plains and temperatures fell drastically, with areas in Montana and the Dakotas plunging to 25°F or more below normal. Despite snows in the Northern half of the country and rain storms along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, the Nation was fairly dry during December. Eastern Montana remained in an extreme drought during the month, and the lack of precipitation helped fuel wildfires in Southern California. During the last week of the year, the majority of the winter wheat crop in reporting States was estimated to be in fair to good condition. Mild temperatures and occasional rains helped push three-fourths of California's winter wheat crop to excellent condition by the end of the month. At that same time in Kansas, cold, dry conditions caused 75 percent of the crop to be reported in fair to good condition, 4 percentage points below the same time last year. Pasture and range conditions were low in reporting States during the last week of December. In particular, half of Montana's pasture and range land was reported in very poor condition, 10 percentage points more than was reported in these two categories for the week ending October 29. Other States fared better, but only Colorado and North Carolina had the majority of their pasture and range land rated in good to excellent condition. During the middle of December, temperatures in Florida were reported as being ideal for citrus orchards. Grove operations were normal during the month, with producers spraying, mowing, replanting, and harvesting. Sporadic bloom was reported in some areas, possibly due to warmer temperatures. By the end of the month tangerines and tangelos were being harvested for the fresh market included midseason cultivars Autumn Honey, Orri, Osceola, Robinson and Tango tangerines, and Orlando tangelos were the main varieties at the packinghouses. Early orange harvest for the fresh market was mostly Hamlins and Navels. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2017-2018 grapefruit crop is forecast at 530,000 tons, down 8 percent from last month and 22 percent below last season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 4.65 million boxes (198,000 tons), is unchanged from last month, but down 40 percent from last year. When compared with the previous season, California's expected production, at 4.20 million boxes (168,000 tons), is up, however Texas's grapefruit production forecast at 4.10 million boxes (164,000 tons) is down. Lemons: The forecast for the 2017-2018 United States lemon crop is 870,000 tons, down 4 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The California production forecast, at 20.5 million boxes (820,000 tons), is down 2 percent from last month but unchanged from 2016-2017. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 881,000 tons, down 9 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last season's final utilization. The California forecast, at 21.0 million boxes (840,000 tons), is down 9 percent from last month and down 12 percent from the 2016-2017 season. Growers reported lower than originally expected yields. Florida citrus: Daily temperatures across the citrus region were cooler than average the first week of December, but warmed up quickly as the month progressed. Reported high temperatures ranged from the upper 50s, on the coldest days, to the low 80s, on the warmest days. Rainfall totals were below the average in most of the citrus growing region. The Indian River District was the only area with typical rainfall for the month. Vero Beach (Indian River County) and Ft. Pierce (St. Lucie County) each reported one and a half inches of rainfall during the month. Most of Desoto, Hendry, and Polk, the three highest citrus producing counties, had less than a half of an inch of rainfall. According to the December 28, 2017 U.S. Drought Monitor, the complete citrus growing region remained drought free. Reported grove operations included fertilizing, mowing, topping, and hedging, applying herbicides, spraying, and harvesting. All growers were irrigating regularly due to the dry weather and warm temperatures. Processing plants accepted both packinghouse eliminations and field run fruit. California citrus: Navel orange harvest was ongoing and gained momentum by month's end. Lemon, grapefruit, mandarin, and pomelo harvests continued. Young citrus trees were bagged to protect them from frost, as citrus growers continued to protect their orchards due from cold overnight temperatures. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Table grape harvest was almost finished mid-month. Some vineyards were sprayed for weeds. Table grapes from cold storage continued to be exported. Pomegranates, kiwifruit, and persimmons were harvested. Olive groves were pruned throughout the month. The extent of the impact of the southern California wild fires and Santa Ana winds on avocado and citrus orchards has yet to be quantified. At the end of December some older, poorly producing orchards and vineyards were removed and prepared for replanting. Some growers prepared to apply winter dormant sprays. Almond and pistachio harvests were complete by the first of December. Walnut harvest was nearly complete. Soil amendments were applied in orchards. By the end of the month, pistachios, almonds, walnuts, and pecans continued to be packed and shipped primarily to foreign markets. Nut growers were busy applying winter weed sprays. Some older orchards were pushed out and the ground was prepped for planting. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of December 1, 2017 totaled 86.2 million tons, down 10 percent from the previous December. Disappearance from May 1, 2017 - December 1, 2017 totaled 69.6 million tons, compared with 64.3 million tons for the same period a year earlier. The majority of the eastern States reported higher stocks compared to the previous year due to a higher production. Meanwhile, among States west of the Mississippi River, only Colorado and Wyoming had higher stocks than in 2016. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 60 percent of the United States production last season. In August and September 2017, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 5.2 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 5.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.2 percent, or 5.4 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.9 percent, or 9.4 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 344,000 tons (355,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 2,000 tons to 843,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 7 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127 Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section........................................ (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-9526 James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533 Jeff Lemmons - Oats, Soybeans.................................................. (202) 690-3234 Sammy Neal - Peanuts, Rice..................................................... (202) 720-7688 Joshua O'Rear - Crop Weather, Barley........................................... (202) 720-7621 Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat....................................................... (202) 720-8068 Bianca Pruneda - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.............................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127 Vincent Davis - Apricots, Bananas, Cherries, Garlic, Lettuce, Mint, Papaya, Pears, Strawberries, Tomatoes....................................................... (202) 720-2157 Fleming Gibson - Avocados, Cauliflower, Celery, Citrus, Coffee, Dates, Figs, Kiwifruit, Nectarines, Olives, Green Peas, Taro, Watermelons.................. (202) 720-5412 Greg Lemmons - Blackberries, Blueberries, Boysenberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes........................................................... (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Artichokes, Austrian Winter Peas, Cantaloupes, Dry Beans, Dry Edible Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Mushrooms, Peaches, Snap Beans ...... (202) 720-3250 Daphne Schauber - Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chile Peppers, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Maple Syrup, Tree Nuts, Spinach......................... (202) 720-4215 Chris Singh - Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Lima Beans, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-4288 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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